Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that England will beat Germany in their second-round match at Wembley next week before progressing to the final next month.
Germany sneaked into the round of 16 after scoring a late equaliser against Hungary on 23 June, with the match finishing 2-2.
France topped the so-called ‘group of death’ following a 2-2 draw against Portugal, with Hungary eliminated following Germany’s late equaliser.
Germany’s second-place finish means they will play a last-16 tie against England at Wembley on 29 June, 25 years after the country’s famous victory on penalties against England in the semi-final of Euro 96.
However, this time round England will prevail, according to the model created by Goldman Sachs’ analysts.
“Our model thinks that this time will be an English victory, and England will go on to progress to the final,” a 24 June note from Goldman analyst Christian Schnittker said.
Goldman has forecast a 2-1 victory for England over Germany in the hotly anticipated second-round clash. England have not beaten Germany in a knockout round at a major tournament since 1966 when the Three Lions lifted the World Cup on home soil after beating West Germany in the final.
Football is not coming home this year, however, with Romelu Lukaku’s Belgium team set to lift the trophy, according to Goldman’s model.
The bank predicted a victory for Belgium before the start of the tournament, and had also predicted an England victory over Germany in the round of 16, before predicting that they would face France instead as results unfolded.
According to the Goldman note, England will beat Sweden in the quarter finals and the Netherlands in the semi-finals before losing 2-1 to Belgium in the final.
In the weekend’s round of knockout matches, the bank has predicted that Wales will lose 2-1 to Denmark after extra time, Italy will beat Austria 2-1, the Netherlands will win 2-1 against the Czech Republic and Belgium will win 2-1 against Portugal.
Goldman’s analysts modelled the number of goals that would be scored by each team using data going back to 1980, the bank said in its pre-tournament research note.
The analysts found that the number of goals scored by each side can be explained by the strength of their squad, as measured by the World Football Elo Rating, goals scored and conceded in recent games, a 0.4 goal a game home advantage, and a “tournament effect”, which shows some countries tend to outperform their usual rating in major competitions.
“It is difficult to assess how much faith one should have in these predictions,” the original note said in a disclaimer. “The forecasts are highly uncertain, even with sophisticated statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game. This is, of course, precisely why football is so exciting to watch,” the note added.
The tournament is taking place a year behind schedule because of the coronavirus crisis.
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