I can find a arguments for both, so I think we need to just sit on our hands and wait till the market unveil their intensions.
S&P 500 (ES mini future):
Sofar the market action is panning out as expected (see See Market Outlook – week 30). not much action and forming a reversal candle.
At the moment the weekly low is 4364.75 and if we are not going below that this week and also not very far above the current weekly high of 4416.75 one could consider going short next week on a break below 4364.
Nasdaq 100 (ES mini future):
Actually it’s the same picture as the S&P mini on the weekly and if we close the week at around these levels, then next week a short may be possible when trading below current weeks low.
Looking at the , it offers a little bit more clarity than the S&P , because on Monday an attempt was made to break the 20 day MA and was nicely rejected on a rebound on Tuesday. This might even suggest that the 1-4 candle correction (b/c MRI sell) on the weekly is already dealt with.
But as long as we have not crossed the break-out line I’m not willing to call that yet.
Dow Jones Industrial (ES mini future):
It’s getting boring but there is also not much difference here from Nasdaq and S&P . But since there was a starred candle last week, one could consider a long at this point, but looking at all the other indices discussed here I myself am not willing to that.
Also the daily is not able to shed light on the situation and is moving sideways.
Russell 2000 (ES mini):
The Russell was a bit of a trouble child at the start of the week, but it is still holding the trendline drawn from last year’s March lows. But as long as we are below the 20 weeks MA I don’t really see a long opportunity here.
As always, this is not trading advice, but only my views on the market.
Please do your own research before entering any trade.