Tesla is focused on 50,000 Semi produced and sold in 2024. They can dangle per chance 100 within the closing month of 2022 and about 10,000 to 20,000 in 2023. The overall US market is 4 million Semi trucks with about 550,000 recent sales expected within the following two years. Tesla making 80,000 sales would be 2% of the total market and 15% of recent sales.
I preferred this commentary from one of my commenters. I added a title and a few minor changes.
the total objections about random edge cases the assign it wouldn’t work well are actually irrelevant unless manufacturing capability meets present massive question. We’re splendid getting started.
Tesla splendid has to meet about a of the market after which recent and greater objects for other aspects of a monumental market. Tesla started in autos with the Roadster after which the Mannequin S. Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y dangle been the greater quantity autos. Mannequin Y is now the becoming-promoting automotive mannequin on this planet for the quarter and could serene be for all of 2023.
The Tesla Semi appears to be like to handle 40% of the US market quite well. Tesla Semi has even greater markets in China, Japan, Europe and the comfort of Asia.
A Nextbiguture Commenter
Tesla Semi will get a verified 1.7kWh/mile effectivity with a flatbed load and the frequent value of vitality within the transportation sector in 2021 was as soon as $0.102/kWh. If it’s moderately greater this 365 days – inform $0.11/kWh. It would value $187 for every 1,000 miles pushed.
Plus there’s the total other advantages you mentioned and one gargantuan one you didn’t: Security. Having to accelerate up hills isn’t protected, and neither is the tendency to jackknife in sorrowful stipulations, or worse traction administration than an EV. For hilly routes, the Tesla Semi would be saving a loyal chunk of time vs the passe rivals because it’s faster up and down these hills.
Additionally, there’s a federally mandated 30 min. spoil meaning that a Tesla Semi could effortlessly high-tail 850 miles a day with a single 30 min. charging-lavatory-meals spoil. The stats are exhibiting that even crew trucks aren’t doing extra than 850 miles a day extra on the total than no longer. There’s at all times exceptions, however that’s what they’re, exceptions to the rule of thumb.
There are substitute shrimp transport companies with proprietor/operator trucks and these working mounted routes that electrical semis would be splendid for. Bigger than half of of trucking routes are already <500 miles meaning the total OTR section is the minority and obviously no longer Tesla's center of attention with their first Semi. I inform obviously because or no longer it's a day cab, no longer a sleeper cab.
Any misgivings relating to the central driving role, systems, charging, or whatever will be overcome the equal manner the relaxation has: observe and expertise unless or no longer it's second nature. It IS different to what truckers are at this time aged to, however from an engineering standpoint is clearly superior so I'm predicting will change into the recent norm in future BEV trucks constructed on recent platforms.
Attacking the First 3% in Two Years Procedure 97% Will No longer Convert
The bottom line is that electrical truck manufacturing capability splendid isn’t there but to even dent the semi market so the total objections about random edge cases the assign it wouldn’t work well are actually irrelevant unless manufacturing capability meets present massive question. We’re splendid getting started!
P. S. Battery longevity is already manner greater than most of these clowns mark. Tesla’s 2nd gen batteries and powertrains in relate dangle lasted 3-400,000 miles with the acknowledged neutral being 1 million mile longevity for the 3rd and 4th gen.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Chief and a preferred Science blogger with 1 million readers month-to-month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Weblog. It covers many disruptive technology and traits alongside side Drawl, Robotics, Synthetic Intelligence, Medication, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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